12/24/2012
Facebook noise
Facebook seems to have recently allowed ads to appear in people's iPhone feeds. It's once again increased the signal-to-noise ratio on Facebook (or that the other way around), and I think it's just one more step that will push users away until we do finally see Facebook die, as hard as that is to envision.
Two clever things that Facebook did, which is sneakier than simply injecting ads, is to make to the ads look like posts from people and also to set things up so people like what is effectively an ad, which then appears to be something that they themselves have posted (along with 3000 other people).
The first step is just annoying, because the post appears as a normal item in the newsfeed/timeline, but it requires a user to install something to use or view. Probably not a lot of people go so far as to install the ad, but sometimes there are interesting stories that appear on there which I've even been tempted to click on. I bet a lot of people have done the same as me, but they haven't gone any farther and actually installed the item. The select few who have done so are probably the same people whose computers were absolutely destroyed its spyware about 5 years ago.
The second step is much more subtle, as you don't realize at first it's effective an ad, even if your friend has liked it. Face it, they just saw the ad before you and were just happy to click Like and show their brand allegiance before you. Except, by doing so, they took the ad from being a generic company page to something infinitely more personal. I bet that these ads are a lot more successful, not only because of this more personal characteristic your friend imparted, but also because someone you know (and trust) has made a judgment call declaring it safe to Like the page, so suddenly to you the decision to Like is no longer some foreign, skepticism-inducing choice--someone else has said, "Don't worry, it's cool. Everyone is doing it." They've blazed a path.
But, people will catch on. Just as FarmVille used to dominate our Newsfeeds with literally hundreds of stories about how "Sherry needs your help growing her crops!", we will eventually develop a filtering habit which blocks these posts out. At that point Facebook will search for a new way to sneak in to our mindshare,
And the first method, well, it's not going to be really successful in its current form. But because Facebook is clever, I don't expect the, to drop it. Instead, I think we'll see the development of one-click installation of these apps, rather than the multi-step process it is currently. There will be a push to make it as simple as possibly to click past the mandatory and legislated privacy and permissions warnings and get right to spamming your friends Newsfeeds. We'll see that when it happens.
But al of this extra advertising is eroding how much people like Facebook. Sidebar ads were fine, but fake stories in our Newsfeeds. That's devaluing their value, seeding them with false or irrelevant information. Once it hits the tipping point, people will no longer see any value in the Newsfeed, being too full of junk, like an inbox overflowing with spam.
People will seek alternate ways to pull out the info they need--maybe external tools to only collect "real" posts from friends--or abandon Facebook entirely. Considering the tech-savvyness needed for the first to happen, I think we'll just see Facebook fall by the wayside.
If you're skeptical, just think how many Facebook users were on Yahoo email at one time. I bet all of those accounts would still be around (if Yahoo didn't delete them due to inactivity)--I just bet all of those people now use Gmail instead.
Two clever things that Facebook did, which is sneakier than simply injecting ads, is to make to the ads look like posts from people and also to set things up so people like what is effectively an ad, which then appears to be something that they themselves have posted (along with 3000 other people).
The first step is just annoying, because the post appears as a normal item in the newsfeed/timeline, but it requires a user to install something to use or view. Probably not a lot of people go so far as to install the ad, but sometimes there are interesting stories that appear on there which I've even been tempted to click on. I bet a lot of people have done the same as me, but they haven't gone any farther and actually installed the item. The select few who have done so are probably the same people whose computers were absolutely destroyed its spyware about 5 years ago.
The second step is much more subtle, as you don't realize at first it's effective an ad, even if your friend has liked it. Face it, they just saw the ad before you and were just happy to click Like and show their brand allegiance before you. Except, by doing so, they took the ad from being a generic company page to something infinitely more personal. I bet that these ads are a lot more successful, not only because of this more personal characteristic your friend imparted, but also because someone you know (and trust) has made a judgment call declaring it safe to Like the page, so suddenly to you the decision to Like is no longer some foreign, skepticism-inducing choice--someone else has said, "Don't worry, it's cool. Everyone is doing it." They've blazed a path.
But, people will catch on. Just as FarmVille used to dominate our Newsfeeds with literally hundreds of stories about how "Sherry needs your help growing her crops!", we will eventually develop a filtering habit which blocks these posts out. At that point Facebook will search for a new way to sneak in to our mindshare,
And the first method, well, it's not going to be really successful in its current form. But because Facebook is clever, I don't expect the, to drop it. Instead, I think we'll see the development of one-click installation of these apps, rather than the multi-step process it is currently. There will be a push to make it as simple as possibly to click past the mandatory and legislated privacy and permissions warnings and get right to spamming your friends Newsfeeds. We'll see that when it happens.
But al of this extra advertising is eroding how much people like Facebook. Sidebar ads were fine, but fake stories in our Newsfeeds. That's devaluing their value, seeding them with false or irrelevant information. Once it hits the tipping point, people will no longer see any value in the Newsfeed, being too full of junk, like an inbox overflowing with spam.
People will seek alternate ways to pull out the info they need--maybe external tools to only collect "real" posts from friends--or abandon Facebook entirely. Considering the tech-savvyness needed for the first to happen, I think we'll just see Facebook fall by the wayside.
If you're skeptical, just think how many Facebook users were on Yahoo email at one time. I bet all of those accounts would still be around (if Yahoo didn't delete them due to inactivity)--I just bet all of those people now use Gmail instead.
